The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan (“the commission”) on Thursday called on its regional and international partners for “urgent, coordinated action to protect civilians and preserve the Revitalized Peace Agreement. The call comes in response to escalating violence and political instability in the region, where increasing military clashes, reports of indiscriminate attacks on civilian populations, and arrests of prominent political figures raises concerns about a potential unraveling of the peace process.

The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (RPA) is an agreement signed between the South Sudanese Transitional Government of National Unity and several opposition parties in the country in 2018. The binding agreement established a permanent ceasefire and created arrangements for power sharing and the unification of armed forces within the country, alongside demobilization and disarmament of former combatants, and is considered a cornerstone of South Sudan’s fragile stability.

Violence in the country intensified as of last month in multiple regions, particularly in the upper nile. Following months of clashes between government and armed groups in the region, including an attack on the 7th against a UN peacekeeping helicopter, over 60,000 people have been displaced by “aerial assaults”. The attacks were noted to have targeted populated areas.

The uptick in violence follows a pattern of widespread arbitrary detention employed by both government forces and organized armed groups as a tool of intimidation against political opponents and dissidents in the country in recent years. Since the beginning of the year, South Sudanese authorities arrested 22 political and military personnel comprising mostly of individuals connected with opposition leaders, including First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar. Machar was arrested earlier in the week for trying to “stir up rebellion”. The arrests have been criticized for violating obligations under human rights and due process as well as the RPA provisions on political inclusion and rule of law.

According to the chair of the Commission, Yasmin Sooka, “At the heart of South Sudan’s crisis is a failure to protect civilians and uphold the commitments of the Revitalized Peace Agreement. The deliberate targeting of opposition leaders and civilians represents a reckless disregard for international law and the country’s future.” The Commission also warned that if the protections enshrined in the RPA, such as freedom of movement, political participation, and the cessation of hostilities are not upheld, it would “lead to a catastrophic return to war.”

The threat of one-sided foreign intervention, such as by Ugandan forces deployed in the country pursuant to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s request, can further exacerbate the issue. The increasingly partisan role of foreign forces within the country can shift power balances and increase risks of escalation between government and partisan forces, making civilians more vulnerable. The deployments themselves also raise concerns about potential violations of UN arms embargoes on South Sudan.