UK Ministry of Justice predicts prison population to exceed 100K by 2029 News
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UK Ministry of Justice predicts prison population to exceed 100K by 2029

The UK Ministry of Justice predicted that more than 100,000 people may be held in custody by 2029, in a report released Thursday. The report alarmed prison overcrowds which may undermine prisoners’ rights in the country.

In the report, the ministry provided a low, central and high estimate of the size of the prison population based on the level of custodial spaces required by court receipts, police and prosecutorial activities. The report stated that if the level increases by 5 to 10 percent, the prison population will grow to between 100,800 and 105,200 people by March 2029. Even if the level remains unchanged, the prison population in 2029 will reach 95,700, still exceeding the current “operational capacity” for English and Welsh men and women’s prisons at 89,619.

The report states that this projected increase is due to several factors, including increases in police and prosecutorial activity, projected increases in the number of cases that enter the criminal courts, and changes in sentencing policy and behaviour, which will keep the most serious offenders in prison for longer.

Previously in 2023, the government sought to address the prison overcrowding problem by “building 20,000 modern, rehabilitative prison places–the largest prison building programme since the Victorian era.” This large-scale reform was meant to be achieved expediently by 2025. However, in 2024 the prisons minister revealed that this target would not be achieved due to delays in securing planning permissions. The National Audit Office remains sceptical, stating that the policy represented a “failure to align criminal justice policies with funding for the prison estate, leading to reactive solutions which represent poor value for money.” The office also said the situation is exacerbated by poor communication and cooperation between government offices. The National Audit Office further commented that the policy was “unrealistic and was not prioritised by the government, with resulting delays that have exacerbated the current crisis.”

One idea that has been discussed by parliament is moving towards a more rehabilitation-focused prison system, that will endeavour to release people,  prevent return convictions and decrease prison time. This could be achieved by building “friendlier” prisons that focus on improving the mental health and well-being of inmates ahead of their release.

The increasing number of prisoners and the stagnation of prison capacity could have serious ramifications for the justice system, preventing or delaying the trial of those facing offences that may result in time in custody.

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