In this occasional series of dispatches and commentaries, JURIST staff and correspondents from around the world reflect on the implications of Donald Trump’s US election victory and some of its likely implications for their regions. In this dispatch, Conor Doran, a JURIST staffer at University College Cork School of Law in Ireland, offers his perspective. 

I was unsure what I expected from the 2024 US presidential election. After the drama of the election in 2020, I was torn between the expectation that 2024 would further unravel the American democratic experiment, and the expectation that some sense of normalcy would return to the electoral cycle. What happened, I suppose, is a bit of both.

Election day from across the ocean, in the misty hills of Cork, seemed plain and ordinary. The calm and orderly lines we could see at the polls contrasted with the political attack ads I had been barraged with watching American football at the pubs along Washington Street. I suppose I had unconsciously bought into the impossible to avoid ‘end of the world’ rhetoric I had seen on TV and on social media in the expectation that something extraordinary would happen on election day.

That being said, “calm and orderly” does not guarantee a positive outcome. To be frank, America’s democratic institutions are in a worrying state. From the outside, Donald Trump appears to be a dangerous US leader who will take whatever power he can get, whether legal or not. I worry that a Republican House, Senate, and Supreme Court will not hold him accountable to the rule of law. I think that domestically he will make America a more dangerous place, with his plans to deport millions of immigrants and pursue pro-Palestine protestors. I also believe he will make the world a more dangerous place, with an antagonistic approach to foreign policy that threatens the isolation of the US from the rest of the world. I hope that America’s democratic institutions are strong, because I fear they will need to be. The fundamental cracks that Trump’s re-election has exposed did not start with Donald Trump. In my opinion, he is a manifestation of decades of gerrymandering, hyper-partisanship, and the excessive influence of corporate donors in American politics. I believe President Trump is an example of why independent democratic institutions need to be cultivated and cherished at every level of society.

In Ireland, the election was watched keenly, as Ireland and the US share deep historical, cultural and economic ties. Irish law students in general seemed most concerned about Palestine. At every class, I overheard groups of students around me lamenting the position of the American voter, given that both Harris and Trump supported continuing to arm Israel. The Irish people have a long history of enduring oppression and genocide so there is a general solidarity with the struggles of Palestinians. A significant number of students were also concerned about Trump’s impact on women’s rights. Many interpreted the result of the election as a rejection of Kamala Harris because she is a Black woman. Students are also concerned about abortion rights. Although Trump has promised to leave abortion legislation to states, there are concerns that his election will threaten women’s rights by emboldening state policymakers who want to restrict abortion. While Ireland was traditionally a conservative Catholic country, from the 90s to the early 2000s it experienced a “quiet revolution” that led to constitutional referendums that liberalized social policies including the legalization of abortion. To a nation that democratically legalized abortion and same-sex marriage relatively recently, the regression of rights in the US has been viewed as striking. Among students, academics and legal professionals, significant mention has also been made of Trump’s opposition to green energy. In Ireland there is a general consensus that drastic changes to the economic system will be required to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The election of a presidential candidate who seems to plead ignorance to the complicated demands of the climate transition seems strange from an EU perspective. Students are worried about their future, and they view Trump’s support of fossil fuels as undermining international efforts to mitigate the effects of the climate crisis.

In terms of more general consequences relating to President Trump’s re-election; no country is immune to authoritarianism. Trump has a history of disrespect for democratic institutions, which he demonstrated, perhaps most starkly, in his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Given the strength of the US military and the prominence of its economy, any degree of democratic backsliding in the US will fundamentally impact the world. While in office, Trump is also likely to leave an even larger footprint on the US Supreme Court. The number of Trump-appointed justices on the court could undermine the court’s ability to hold Trump within constitutional constraints due to conflict of interest. Even if Trump is restricted from overstepping his constitutional powers while he’s in office, his appointments will have a long-term partisan impact on the US rule of law.

Trump is also a risk to the rule of law internationally. For example, he has encouraged Israel to “finish the job” in Palestine. The Biden administration has already been permissive of Palestinian civilian casualties and allegations of Israeli war crimes through its continuation of arms supply to Israel, so it is worrying what a president with Trump’s position could mean for Palestinian civilians. There is also the risk of President Trump escalating the conflict into a broader regional war. Given President Trump’s assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, tensions between the administration and Iran will already likely be high. If there is an escalation of the war in Palestine/Israel, increased American involvement may stoke division within the EU. There is already a stark divide in the EU between members such as Germany that continue to arm and defend Israel, and states such as Spain and Ireland that have intervened against Israel in the ICJ genocide case and recognized the state of Palestine.

The Irish media and the Irish political class generally seem most concerned that Trump’s proposal to lower the US corporate tax rate will lead to the flight of the hundreds of large American multinationals that are headquartered in Ireland. While the media also pay some attention to Palestine and Trump’s climate policies, they seem most interested in keeping Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, and IBM in the country.