Amid a broader global deterioration in rule-of-law indicators, the US has dropped six places to rank 43rd globally in measurements of “lawful transition of power,” according to the World Justice Project‘s (WJP) latest Rule of Law Index, released Wednesday.
The decline comes just two weeks before the 2024 presidential election, which have proven deeply divisive and have spurred mistrust among supporters of both major parties. Following Republican candidate Donald Trump’s loss in 2020, his supporters mobbed the US Capitol Building, spurred on by the belief the elections had been rigged.
Seen as an unprecedented attack at the time, distrust in the electoral system has since proliferated among supporters of both major parties. Earlier this month, a national poll conducted by PRRI revealed that nearly one in five Republicans believe that if Trump loses the upcoming presidential election, “he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume office.” Among Democrats asked the same question about the potential loss of their candidate Kamala Harris, 12% opined she should do the same.
The WJP rankings add heft to these figures. Only half of Americans express trust in election officials, with stark partisan differences: 34% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats indicate trust in election administrators. The study found that one in three Americans would be prepared to reject presidential election results, with 46% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats stating they would not accept results as legitimate if the other party’s candidate won.
The US is not alone in witnessing the degradation of confidence in key rule of law benchmarks. The annual WJP Rule of Law Index reveals the rule of law has weakened in a majority of countries (57%) surveyed, marking the seventh consecutive year of global decline. While the United States maintained its overall ranking of 26th out of 142 countries, this places it in the bottom half among high-income nations, far behind top-ranked countries like Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Germany.
The report highlights particularly troubling trends in election confidence and democratic transitions globally. Since 2016, the Index subfactor measuring lawful transition of power has declined in 72% of countries. In 2024 elections thus far, the ruling party has maintained power in 13 out of 15 countries with below-average scores on this measure.
However, the report does offer some hope for democratic renewal. Countries like Brazil and Poland, which had experienced some of the largest rule of law declines since 2016, showed significant improvement after recent democratic transitions. Additionally, for the first time in five years, more countries improved than declined on measures of corruption, with nearly three-fifths (59%) of countries showing progress in this area.
