Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Monday that the country’s threat level is being increased from “possible to probable” at a press conference in Canberra with Mike Burgess, the Director-General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation. The officials cited an increase in extremist views in the country leading to a more than 50% chance of the planning of an onshore attack in the next 12 months.

Albanese reassured the public in his announcement, saying:

to be clear, this is the same threat level that was in place in Australia for more than eight years before it was lowered in November of 2022. At that time, we said as a government, it does not mean the threat from terrorism is extinguished. Since then we have seen a global rise in politically motivated violence and extremists.

Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the war between Israel and Hamas that started on October 7, are a contributing factor to the increased threat level, according to Burgess.

In recent months, there have been a number of violent acts in Australia, some of which have been attributed to extremist motivations. A knife attack on an Assyrian church bishop and some of his supporters in Sydney in April was described by Australian authorities as a terrorist crime driven by a suspicion of religious extremism.

The updated Current National Terrorism Threat Level statement posted on the ASIO website reads in part:

Australia’s security landscape has entered a vulnerable period and is being challenged by new threats with concerning trajectories. Our landscape is a reflection of the social and political environment in which we live – social cohesion is lower, and trust in governments and democratic processes globally are eroding.

ASIO is observing the emergence of domestic actors increasingly driven to action by socio-political issues, intersecting with personal grievances. There is an increase in extremism, fuelled by conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies. Some actors hold a blend of ideologies, including those that justify acts of violence to influence change.

The rise of individual grievance narratives and how they are expressed, are impacting society’s ability to find common ground. Increasingly it is leading to a normalisation of provocative and inflammatory behaviours contrary to community standards and liberal democratic values. Global events such as the conflict in the Middle-East, have resonated in Australia and will continue to do so.