New UK Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in a speech on Friday that the fresh Labour government will temporarily release prisoners and place them under community supervision to combat overcrowding in the nation’s prisons. The government will reduce the proportion of certain custodial sentences to be served within prison walls by 10 per cent. There will be safeguards for the public, including an increase in probation officers. The release is expected to begin in September.

Sentences of four years or more for serious violent offences will be automatically excluded, as will the early release of those charged with sex and domestic abuse offences. This is an extension from the End of Custody Supervised Licence Scheme, which only excluded those convicted of a sexual offence, a terrorist offence or a serious violence offence. The scheme was created in October as a result of the prison overpopulation crisis. At that time, it allowed for 35 days’ early release, which then increased to 70.

More probation officers will be introduced to protect public safety (over 1,000 expected by March 2025), and a 10-year capacity strategy is in development. Anyone released will be monitored by probation officers and face being recalled to prison if they breach their license conditions.

During her speech, the Lord Chancellor claimed, “The last Government left us with a timebomb, ticking away. If we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system and a total breakdown of law and order.”

UK prison maximum capacity stands at 88,956 and the current prison population is 87,505, per the Ministry of Justice’s statistics released Friday. Approximately 1,350 cells are routinely reserved as a contingency. However, prisons have been operating at over 99% capacity since the beginning of 2023. If prisons reached maximum capacity, courts would need to delay sending offenders to jail and fewer police officers would be available on the streets as they would resort to keeping people in their cells, to cope with prison overflow.

Lord Chancellor Mahmood was clear that this was an unfortunate, but necessary, decision:

There is now only one way to avert disaster. I did not choose to do this because I want to … but we are taking every protection that this is available to us … let me be clear, this is an emergency measure. This is not a permanent change. I am unapologetic in my belief that criminals must be punished.

Similar action has been taken in Scotland, with early release of people sentenced for under four years (discounting those convicted of sexual or domestic abuse offences) expected soon.