The Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) published its assessment report on Thursday, finding that the threat of terrorism in Denmark and against its interests abroad had increased because of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and a series of Quran burnings in Denmark in 2023.
The PET rated the overall terrorist threat in Denmark as “significant,” but expressed that anti-Islam activities and the Israel-Hamas war had exacerbated the threat within the current level. The war, according to the PET, “holds a considerable potential for radicalization and mobilization which may prompt spontaneous or premeditated reactions, including terrorist attacks” in Denmark.
The intelligence agency identified six categories of threats. While the threat relating to militant Islamists remained at the level of “significant,” threats from right-wing extremists, anti-establishment extremists and left-wing extremists were labeled as “general,” “limited” and “minimal,” respectively. In addition, the PET assessed the threats from advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technology but opined that it was too soon to comment on their specific effects. As for the impact from other international conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, the PET said it currently “has no direct effect on the terrorist threat to Denmark.”
The PET also identified threats emanating from militant Islamists as posing the highest risk because “the Quran desecrations in 2023 have renewed the perception of Denmark as a prioritized target among militant Islamist groups.” In July 2023, a small group of protesters set fire to a copy of the Quran, Islam’s holy book, at Iraqi embassy in Copenhagen. The incident was not the first of its kind and added significantly to the deterioration of diplomatic relations between Denmark and Muslim countries. Following the series of incidents, the Danish Parliament passed a bill on December 7, 2023, making it illegal to burn Quran and other sacred religious books in public spaces.
The PET pointed out that the most likely militant Islamist terrorist attack in Denmark would be “an attack carried out by a lone actor or a small group inspired by Islamic State or al-Qaida, using easily accessible means such as bladed weapons or vehicles, firearms or improvised explosive devices.” The report also drew attention to the attack in Brussels on October 16, 2023, where a gunman motivated partly by similar Quran desecrations in Sweden killed two Swedish citizens and wounded a third. The PET estimated that the most likely targets of such a militant Islamist terrorist attack in Denmark would be Jewish and Israeli targets, targets associated with perceived insults to Islam, LGBTQ+ targets, authority targets, as well as civilian targets.
On December 14, 2023, Denmark arrested and remanded four individuals—three in Denmark and one in the Netherlands—in custody on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack. The PET said the case was related to Hamas and an illegal gang.
