Mystery continues to shroud the deal that saw Yevgeny Prigozhin call off his mercenary forces as they marched largely undeterred toward Moscow on Saturday. Kremlin officials have announced that Russia would not pursue criminal charges against the Wagner leader, whom Russian leader Vladimir Putin had accused a day prior of treason, but all sides have remained silent on other elements of the negotiations.
“Criminal proceedings [against Prigozhin] will be dropped, and he will be leaving on his own accord for Belarus. If you’re asking about the nature of the guarantee that Prigozhin will be able to leave Russia — it is the word of the president,” Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday in quotes carried by Russian state-controlled news outlet RIA Novosti.
Peskov took care to credit Belarusian President Viktor Lukashenko with having defused the situation, saying the latter’s 20-year friendship with the mercenary leader helped facilitate the 11th-hour deal. Belarusian authorities took a social media victory lap after Prigozhin announced the retreat of his forces.
The Kremlin added that Wagner troops who participated in Saturday’s events would likewise be spared criminal charges on account of their past service to Russian security, while those who refrained from participating would be offered Russian military contracts. It is unclear why Peskov believes any of these fighters — who in the first place opted to serve with Wagner, which offers relatively high pay and benefits — would willingly choose to accept Russian military contracts.
As of the time of writing, Prigozhin’s press service account on Telegram had remained silent since he announced his troops’ about-face on Saturday.
Wagner Group social media accounts, meanwhile, went into PR overdrive, posting photos that purported to show Russian locals embracing their retreating troops, and launching a renewed recruitment drive, offering would-be fighters with patriotism and a passport a minimum base salary that towered over the Russian average income. Per the Wagner group announcement, before bonuses, their mercenaries’ salaries start at 240,000 rubles a month (~$2,800 USD at time of writing). By comparison, per Russian government data cited by Trading Economics, the average Russian monthly salary in May 2023 was 71,334 rubles (~$850).
The truly consequential tradeoffs between Putin and Prigozhin remain unknown. Speculation continues to swirl over what this will mean for Russian military leadership and strategy, as well as for troop morale as Moscow’s unprovoked war on Ukraine rages well into its second year.