The British government published a report on Wednesday forecasting the “reasonable worst-case scenario” of a “no-deal” exit of the UK from the EU. British opposition lawmakers compelled the publication of the report via a Parliamentary vote for its release.
The report predicts severe traffic jams at ports resulting in food and medicine shortages, as well as other externalities. Port traffic could drop by as much as 60 percent, as trucks boarding boats to cross the English Channel would face long delays due to customs checks, which would be required for the first time in decades.
The document also predicts that protests and counter-protests would consume “significant police resource.”
While some businesses have began to take steps to mitigate the worst effects of a no-deal Brexit, the report estimates that a majority of businesses would not be prepared for the disruption that would immediately result from an imposition of new customs checks.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has maintained that the UK must be able to use the threat of a no-deal exit as bargaining chip to obtain better exit terms from other EU countries. The government plans on attempting a deal with the EU in October, but it is uncertain whether there will be enough time for a new deal to be negotiated and passed through Parliament before the scheduled exit date of October 31.