Urgent action required amid spiraling risk of all-out war in Yemen Features
Urgent action required amid spiraling risk of all-out war in Yemen

Yemen is at risk of returning to full-scale war and the international community has a common interest and responsibility to stop this from happening, UN Special Envoy for the country Hans Grundberg warned the Security Council in July.

For nearly a decade, Yemen has been gripped by one of the most severe humanitarian crises in modern history. The ongoing conflict, which erupted in 2015 between government forces and Houthi rebels, has left an indelible mark on the nation, driving millions from their homes, and leaving the vast majority of the population in desperate need of assistance. With 4.5 million Yemenis displaced and nearly everything in the country at risk of collapse, the world can no longer afford to look away.

The crisis that engulfed Yemen stems from a prolonged civil war, exacerbated by economic turmoil that has plunged an already vulnerable nation into further despair. Before this conflict, Yemen faced challenges like malnutrition and poverty, yet the war has exponentially worsened these conditions. Today, 21.6 million people in Yemen urgently need humanitarian aid, and a potential large-scale famine looms ominously on the horizon.

Most displaced Yemenis have been forced to move multiple times, often staying within the country under increasingly dangerous and difficult circumstances. Food insecurity and lack of basic resources like clean water and healthcare are everyday realities for these individuals. Despite their own dire needs, Yemen continues to host over 97,000 refugees, primarily from nearby Somalia and Ethiopia, demonstrating an astounding level of resilience and humanitarianism amid chaos.

The challenges are compounded by natural disasters like drought and flooding, which have further intensified the region’s suffering. The global economic disruption, including soaring prices from the Ukraine conflict, has hit Yemen especially hard, with essential commodities like wheat becoming scarce and unaffordable. The result? 17.3 million Yemenis face acute food insecurity, with six million teetering on the brink of famine (British Red Cross, January 2024).

Yemeni women and children are disproportionately suffering the impacts of this crisis. Forced displacement has left them vulnerable, with more than three-quarters of displaced individuals being women and children. Young girls and women contend with the pressures of sustaining their families amidst inequity and societal barriers, often without adequate access to education or healthcare. The statistics are harrowing; over two million children under five suffer from acute malnutrition, while millions are out of school, missing out on their future.

In response to this urgent situation, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has been instrumental in delivering lifesaving assistance across Yemen. Their efforts include providing essential shelter, healthcare, and educational resources to displaced families and refugees, . UNHCR’s cash assistance programs aim to meet the immediate needs of Yemen’s most vulnerable communities—covering essentials like food and medicine and offering legal and psycho-social support to cope with the trauma of war.

As the international community, it is crucial to amplify our support for humanitarian efforts in Yemen. The pressing needs cannot be understated; they require a concerted, global effort to prevent an even greater catastrophe. Yemen’s plight is a stark reminder of what happens when the world overlooks those in need. Now, more than ever, Yemen’s silent cries for help must be answered with compassion, action, and unwavering commitment to peace and recovery.

The ongoing conflict in Yemen sees some of its most intense ramifications around the shifting dynamics between local and regional powers. Despite a decrease in direct hostilities between Houthi rebels and the Saudi coalition, tensions remain high owing to repeated Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping routes, a response primarily driven by the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. Attempts at dialogue, facilitated by Saudi-Iran normalization processes, offer some hope but have delivered little tangible progress. With negotiations stalling, intermittent violence has further complicated prospects for peace. This is exacerbated by calls from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) for the establishment of an independent southern Yemeni state, adding another layer of complexity to the already fragile state of negotiations. Meanwhile, the increasing activity from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) poses severe security threats, undermining the efforts for stabilization and further straining the humanitarian relief efforts which remain drastically insufficient for the 21.6 million people in dire need.

Yemen’s conflict landscape is deeply entrenched in regional power struggles, particularly evident since the Houthi insurgency seized control of the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The subsequent Saudi-led intervention turned the struggle into a proxy battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran, further complicating peace efforts. The naval blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia has only intensified the humanitarian crisis, with vast segments of the population facing severe food insecurity and limited access to health services.

This has been compounded by economic instability, particularly through the sharp depreciation of Yemen’s currency, leading to widespread socioeconomic unrest. Concurrently, U.S. involvement, primarily through counterterrorism operations against AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and the Islamic State, underscores its vested interest in Yemen’s stability. Yet, despite these efforts, the humanitarian and security crises have deepened, spotlighting the urgent need for more effective diplomatic and on-the-ground interventions. The hopes pinned on recent diplomatic engagements, such as the Saudi-Iran talks brokered by China, suggest that a regional consensus could provide the necessary impetus for resolving Yemen’s multifaceted conflict. However, without tangible steps, these diplomatic forays might remain just another bout of unfulfilled optimism.

The warning from UN Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, Hans Grundberg about the escalating threat of a return to full-scale war in Yemen highlights the fragile situation and increasing regional tensions that risk destabilizing not just Yemen, but the entire area. According to Grundberg, the deteriorating developments in Yemen signal a dangerous trajectory that could reach a critical tipping point if not addressed. The ongoing conflict, pitting the Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition against Houthi rebels, has recently been compounded by the Houthis’ targeting of commercial ships in the critical Red Sea corridor following the conflict in Gaza.

Grundberg emphasized a concerning regional aspect, highlighted by recent violence, including a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and subsequent Israeli retaliatory strikes, marking a new level of escalation. He points out the increased intensity and precision of threats against international shipping, noting the severe implications for global trade and regional security, particularly concerning the sinking and damage of vessels and ongoing detentions of crews.

Amidst this backdrop, tensions continue to build along Yemeni frontlines, with military activities increasing as preparations for potential conflict intensify. Despite the relatively contained nature of violence compared to pre-2022 truce levels, recent escalations have underlined the volatility and potential for a full-scale return to war, prompting urgent calls for solutions.

Compounding Yemen’s crises are the humanitarian and economic challenges exacerbated by conflict. Grundberg’s reminder of the detention of UN staff and NGO personnel by Ansar Allah (the Houthi political and military organization) underscores the precarious environment for humanitarian operations. Joyce Msuya, acting UN undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs, further articulates concerns over the region’s humanitarian plight, describing the Hudaydah Port as a crucial “lifeline” for millions of Yemenis, under threat from recent hostilities.

Msuya’s alarm about rising food insecurity and malnutrition, with a significant proportion of children affected, highlights an urgent humanitarian crisis. Humanitarian efforts, hindered by funding shortfalls, underscore the need for robust international support to address the yawning gap in necessary aid.

The situation in Yemen thus underscores the multifaceted challenges—escalating military tensions, regional instability, humanitarian crises, and economic hardships—that require urgent, collective international action to avert further disaster, with efforts need to de-escalate tensions, ensure the flow of humanitarian aid, and forge sustainable solutions for peace and stability in Yemen and beyond.