The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy published in June an extensive report concluding that there is strong evidence to suggest that all sides of the 2020-2022 Tigray war committed war crimes – and that Ethiopian and allied forces committed crimes against humanity and acts of genocide against the Tigrayan people. The 80,000 word report details these crimes in their legal contexts and is replete with victim testimony.

The Tigray region in Northern Ethiopia has a long history of conflict. In 1869, Tigrayans defeated Italian colonists, leading to the formation of the Ethiopian empire. In 1974, the Derg, a Marxist-Leninist military dictatorship, overthrew the government and launched the Red Terror, a campaign of political repression. Ethnic rebellions were common during this time, including the Ethiopian Civil War and the Eritrean War of Independence.

In 1975, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was formed. They played a key role in overthrowing the Derg in 1991 and became the dominant force in the new government. Ethiopia experienced economic growth and political stability under the TPLF, but they were accused of authoritarianism and suppressing dissent.

In 2018, Ethiopian power dynamics shifted away from the TPLF when Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister, when then chairman of the EPRDF resigned from the position. During 2020, ethnic and political tensions grew, and in early November, attacks on the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) Northern Command, was the start of the Tigray War between the combined forces of the ENDF and the Eritrean Army against forces loyal to the TPLF. The conflict was devastating, causing a humanitarian crisis and creating millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Though a peace agreement was signed in November of 2022, the situation remains fragile, and the region faces immense challenges in terms of recovery and reconciliation. Implementation of the agreement faces challenges, including concerns about disarmament of the Tigrayan forced, the withdrawal of Eritrean troops, and the restoration of basic services in Tigray.

Three years following the end of the conflict, reports have found strong evidence supporting claims of genocide, citing acts like deliberate killing of Tigrayans, causing serious bodily or mental harm, deliberately inflicting conditions to destroy the population, and imposing measures to prevent births – four of the five elements defining Genocide detailed in the Genocide convention. The report also points to social media posts and speeches that incited hatred and violence against Tigrayans, despite denial from the Ethiopian Government of such claims. Of note, the report, while focusing on the plausibility of genocide against the Tigrayan populations, makes a point to include that both sides have been accused of atrocities such as massacres, rapes, and arbitrary detentions. Deep-rooted historical grievances and political marginalization contribute to the tensions, making it difficult to assign blame solely to one party. The Ethiopian Government has been criticized for hindering international investigations, and the situation remains complex and politically charged, making it difficult to ascertain the full extent of the atrocities and determine culpability.

The report concludes that there is a reasonable basis to believe that members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), Amhara Special Forces, and Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) committed genocide against Tigrayans. The report details the following supporting evidence:

• Actions: Killing, causing harm, inflicting destructive living conditions, and preventing births with the intent to destroy Tigrayans as an ethnic group.
• Hate Speech and Incitement: Derogatory language used by ENDF figures, statements by senior government officials, and the vilification of Tigrayans in public life and media, some of which may constitute direct and public incitement to genocide.
• Targeted Violence: Actions of the perpetrators targeted Tigrayans for violence and displacement.
• Involvement of EDF: The involvement of the EDF, known for its antipathy towards Tigrayans, further supports the claim of genocidal intent.

The record accounts for each actor in order. First, the report details actions by the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. Then, Regional Amhara Authorities and special forces, and finally the State of Eritrea and Eritrean Defense Forces. Each section is further divided by two – the first division exploring direct intent to destroy Tigrayans, and then indirect evidence of the same. Importantly, intent is a requirement in the determination of genocide.

Ethiopian Federal Government: Evidence of Direct Intent to Destroy Tigrayans

Though the government of Ethiopia strongly denied ethnically motivated violence, this appears inconsistent with the pejorative language used by the government to refer to Tigrayans. Words like junta, woyane, and agame are pejoratives used against the TPLF and Tigray forces. Senior UN envoy Pekka Haavistorevealed to press that during a closed-door meeting with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and other ministers, he was told that “they are going to wipe out the Tigrayans for 100 years.” Prime Minister Abiye is also said to have referred to Tigrayan leaders as “cancer” and “weeds” in need of removal. Most telling, is a speech by Prime Minister Abiye’s special affairs advisor Daniel Kibret;

“Weyane [Tigray] is not something we can understand. We can only erase it. For instance, Australia. … there is an island called Tasmania which is found in southern Australia. They have destroyed Tasmanian tribes until only one person remained. There was only one person left for [continuity of] the race. Only one person! They have completely wiped them out. It is only by wiping out. As I had said before, it is only by wiping out [of existence] the disease called Weyaneness. … Firstly, so that is may not exist physically. … Secondly, the [very] idea. The idea of Weyaneness must never exist. Even in the form of an idea. … When people say “Weyane” one ought to say “in the name of the father”! [A common Ethiopian Orthodox reaction uttered against wickedness while crossing oneself] Everyone [should say that]!”

Kibret has also said that “They [TPLF] should be erased and disappeared from historical records. A person who wants to study them should find nothing about them. Maybe he can find out about them by digging in the ground.” The report spends nearly ten pages detailing further examples from other Ethiopian leadership as well as Ethiopian soldiers.

Relevant Circumstances Indirectly Evidencing an Intent to Destroy:

The report details the persecution of Tigrayans in Ethiopia, including:

• Discrimination and Violence: Tigrayans faced widespread discrimination and violence, including ethnic profiling, removal from employment, and travel restrictions.
• Vigilante Violence: Vigilantes searched for Tigrayans, who were then arrested, interrogated, and abused.
• Government Designation of TPLF as Terrorist Organization: This paved the way for further searches, arrests, and prosecutions of Tigrayans.
• Cultural Suppression: Tigrayan music venues were targeted, and Tigrayans were afraid to speak their language.
  
• Sexual Violence: There is evidence of conflict-related sexual violence against Tigrayan women, including destruction of reproductive abilities and rape.
• Government Complicity: The Ethiopian government sought military aid from Eritrean forces, who held animosity towards Tigrayans. The government also sought to cover up evidence of crimes and prevent Tigrayans from fleeing.
  
• Ethnic Cleansing: The image suggests that these actions could be seen as part of an attempt to eliminate the Tigrayan population.

Overall, the image paints a picture of systematic persecution and violence against Tigrayans in Ethiopia, potentially amounting to ethnic cleansing.

Regional Amhara Authorities and Amhara Special Forces: Evidence of Direct Intent to Destroy Tigrayans

The report details ethnic violence and hate speech in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. The Fano, a militia of the Amhara region, committed acts of sexual violence in detention camps, namely gang rape, with the intention to eradicate Tigrayans and their identity.

Amhara ruling figures, like Ethiopian Federal Government leaders, propagated a narrative of historical oppression and genocide against the Amhara people by Tigrayans, fueling animosity. Tigrayans were forced to leave their homes without justification or legal documentation.

In November 2020, a massacre and ethnic cleansing occurred at the Tigray town of Mai Kadra. While investigations have attributed responsibility to a pro-TPLF youth group, there are also reports that Amhara militias and Ethiopian federal forces committed violence against Tigrayans. This event was used by both sides as propaganda to further fuel racial animosity.

Relevant Circumstances Indirectly Evidencing and Intent to Destroy

The conflict between Tigrayans and Amhara in Ethiopia has deep historical roots stemming from land disputes and ethnic nationalism. Land disputes include an Amhara claim of Western Tigray, rejected by Tigray. Amhara also accuse the TPLF of altering demographics in areas of Western, North-West, and South Tigray by displacing Amhara and forcibly marrying local women. The Mai Kadra massacre only fueled further violence, animosity, and highlighted deep-seated ethnic tensions.

The Amhara administration imposed restrictions on Tigrayan movement, language, access to farming and humanitarian aid – aiming to make life unsustainable for Tigrayans and forcing them to leave their homes. Tigrayans were also subjected to intimidation and violence. Victims testify that this included pillaging of crops and livestock, public signs demanding their departure, and pamphlets threatening death should Tigrayans stay. Amhara Authorities also actively encouraged the settlement of Amhara residents into Western Tigray, causing further displacement. The Fano militia carried out violent attacks against Tigrayans based on their ethnicity, as well as detained thousands of Tigrayans – targeting men for execution, leading to a mass exodus of those who witnessed the atrocities. The Amhara Special Forces have also been accused of committing CRSV, using rape and assault as a strategy to further drive out Tigrayans.

The State of Eritrea and Eritrean Defense Forces: Evidence of Direct Intent to Destroy Tigrayans

Eritrea has been heavily involved in this conflict, supporting the Ethiopian government. While there are only a limited number of direct statements from Eritrean leadership, their actions and media rhetoric reveal a hostile stance towards Tigrayans. Eritrean soldiers have been accused of numerous atrocities, especially rape and sexual violence accompanied by statements indicating an intent to eradicate the Tigrayan ethnicity.

Relevant Circumstances Indirectly Evidencing and Intent to Destroy

Eritrean soldiers were invited into Ethiopia under the pretense of a “military intervention” against the TPLF. However, their actions suggest a deeper motive of “payback” against the TPLF, whom Eritrea considers a major threat. Eritrean soldiers have committed serious crimes against Tigrayan civilians, regardless of their affiliation with the TPLF. They have killed civilians indiscriminately, even those who offered them hospitality.

Eritrean soldiers specifically targeted Tigrayan men during house-to-house searches, often killing them on the spot. Women were also targeted, particularly those perceived to be affiliated with the TPLF or whose male relatives were Tigrayan fighters. They were subjected to harassment, detention, and sexual violence. These actions, including the targeting of women based on their perceived affiliation with Tigrayan forces, raise concerns of genocidal intent.

Commission of Prohibited Acts against the Tigrayans as a Protected Group

The report alleges that acts of genocide have been committed against the Tigrayan people. Evidence is presented to support claims of:

1. Mass Killings: A significant portion of the Tigrayan population has been killed, with estimates ranging from 311,000 to 608,000 deaths.
2. Causing Serious Bodily or Mental Harm: Widespread accounts of torture, rape, and other forms of violence have been documented, often resulting in long-term physical and psychological trauma.
3. Deliberately Inflicting Conditions to Destroy the Group:The Ethiopian government and its allies are accused of intentionally creating conditions designed to starve and deprive the Tigrayan population of essential resources for survival.

The report concludes that these actions, taken together with the intent behind them, could constitute genocide under the Genocide Convention.

Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes

 ​The report details crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in the Tigray region. Crimes against humanity, as defined by Article 7 of the Rome Statute, include murder, persecution, rape, and forcible displacement in the context of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population.

The report also details findings on war crimes, which require the existence of an armed conflict and a nexus between that conflict and the perpetrator’s conduct. The perpetrator’s conduct must violate specific rules of international humanitarian law. Accusations of war crimes in the report include violations of requirements for the conduct of hostilities and starvation.

 Crimes Committed by the TPLF and Associated Forces

​Though focused on crimes committed against Tigrayans, the report includes allegations of crimes committed by the TPLF. These crimes include the killing of civilians in several incidents, targeting of Amahara civilians, arrests and violence against non-Tigrayan residents, murder of Eritrean refugees, civilian executions, and attacking town and villages and fighting with national and regional forces in close proximity to civilian areas. The report also includes rape and CRSV allegations against Tigrayan forces, especially gang rape and sexual violence against Amhara women and girls, considered to be “revenge rape” for the rapes of Tigrayan women.

Avenues for Accountability

​In its conclusion, the report cites possible avenues for accountability. The armed conflict between Ethiopia and the TPLF culminated in a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in November of 2022, where Ethiopia committed to implementing a comprehensive national transitional justice policy, aimed at ensuring “accountability, truth, reconciliation and healing in post-conflict Ethiopia,” consistent with the African Union’s 2019 Transitional Justice Policy Framework. However, it remains to be seen how—or even whether—Ethiopia will seek to discharge its commitment in practical terms. Political will, sufficient financing, and independent judges are crucial, especially since those who signed the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement “may well be accused of crimes.” Notably, Ethiopia has previously failed to implement transitional justice processes. While the Criminal Code (2004) includes some provisions relating to genocide and war crimes, commentators have noted that further legislation may be required to enable actual prosecutions for crimes against humanity. There is reason to doubt that domestic accountability mechanisms will be effective in ensuring accountability.

​The Genocide Convention offers two main avenues for preventing and punishing genocide:

1. National Criminal Justice Systems: Countries are obligated to have laws in place to punish individuals who commit genocide or related acts, including government officials. The text mentions Ethiopia as an example of a country that seems slow and unwilling to do this.
2. UN Mechanisms: Any country can ask the UN to intervene and prevent or stop genocide or related acts. Disputes regarding the interpretation of the Genocide Convention can be brought before the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

The report also discusses the challenges of holding individuals criminally responsible for genocide under international law. It highlights the concept of universal jurisdiction, which allows any country to prosecute individuals for serious crimes like genocide, regardless of where the crimes were committed or the nationality of the perpetrator or victim. While universal jurisdiction can be a powerful tool for accountability, it can also lead to political tensions between countries.

The atmosphere following the Tigray War remains complex and fragile. While the ceasefire agreement brought a halt to the fighting, critical issues remain unresolved, casting a long shadow over the potential for long-term stability. The war exacerbated ethnic tensions within Ethiopia, and new conflicts have merged in other regions, further fracturing national unity. The Tigray region has also been devastated by the war, progress on rebuilding efforts are slow, and access to essential services like electricity, healthcare, and telecommunications remains limited in many areas. Hunger is still faced by millions due to disruptions caused by the conflict. The implementation of the peace agreement faces hurdles, including concerns about disarmament of Tigrayan forces, the withdrawal of Eritrean troops, and the restoration of basic services in Tigray.

The international community has a serious role to play in supporting the peace process and ensuring accountability for human rights abuses. The United Nations should continue to monitor the situation and provide humanitarian assistance. The International Criminal Court (ICC) may also have a role to play in investigating and prosecuting those responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

It is difficult to create lasting peace, spurred by the desire to find such peace whilst also making compromises required to achieve it. It is a process that must involve a wide range of stakeholders and parties from all sides of the conflict involved. Negotiations for strong, long-lasting peace can take years to reach a point that is acceptable to all involved, and must certainly include truth and reconciliation, public participation, and most importantly, strong international support – through technical assistance, supporting negotiations, and putting pressure on involved parties to reach just conclusions based on international law. While this may seem fanciful or far-fetched, there are historical examples to look at around the world and even in Africa. The Mozambican Peace Process, the Good Friday Agreement, and the Colombian Peace Process are valuable to look at for guidance on dialogue, compromise, and shared commitments to peace – even in the most intractable conflicts.

Ultimately, the responsibility for ending the conflict and rebuilding Ethiopia lies with the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Both sides must commit to a genuine peace process that addresses the root causes of the conflict and ensures justice for its victims.