The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a turning point for the country, but the path forward will require a carefully managed political transition, accountability for war crimes, and implementation of UN Resolution 2254 to ensure a stable and representative government.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week ago, when rebels launched an astonishing campaign against the regime from their base in Idlib, an opposition stronghold in Syria’s north-west. Assad has since been spirited away to Moscow, where the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on his behalf that he had “decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully.” Assad and his family have reportedly been granted asylum in Russia, which has long supported his forces’ war efforts.

This is a turning point for Syria. After half a century of Assad family rule, there were hopes that the future could be different – more open, less brutal.

The world has seen similar transitions before, with the toppling of Gaddafi in Libya and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Yet in Syria, the implementation of Resolution 2254 is particularly crucial.

Historical context

Assad will forever be remembered as the man who violently repressed peaceful protests against his regime. In 2011, this led to full-fledged civil war, ultimately killing more than half a million people, and displacing another six million. With the help of Russia and Iran, he sought to crush those who opposed him, and survived. Russia used its formidable air power while Iran sent military advisors to Syria, and Hezbollah, the militia it supports in neighboring Lebanon, deployed its well-trained fighters.

His father Hafez ruled for 29 years, until his death in 2000, when Bashar al-Assad came into power. Like his father, the younger Assad ruled with an iron fist, maintaining a tightly controlled and repressive political structure, where opposition was not tolerated.

Seeking accountability

There are arrest warrants out for Assad, as well as other Syrian regime figures like his wife, for crimes committed during the conflict. However, these warrants have not been enacted so far. The main challenge is that there is no open investigation at the International Criminal Court (ICC) into the Assad regime’s actions as Syria is not a party to the Rome Statute — the ICC’s founding treaty.

Efforts will need to be accelerated to either get the ICC to open an investigation, or set up a special tribunal to try Assad and others for crimes like the use of chemical weapons. Even though Assad has now fled Syria, he does not have safe haven forever. The hope is that he and other regime figures will eventually be brought to justice, even if it takes years or decades, as has happened with other leaders like Serbian genocidaire Slobodan Milosevic.

There are urgent concerns about preserving viable evidence now that the presidential palace has been stormed. This evidence will be crucial to building any future cases against Assad. Overall, while holding Assad accountable faces significant challenges, the Syrian people and the international community are determined to pursue justice, even if the process is slow. Maintaining this pressure and momentum is seen as essential for Syria’s democratic transition.

Political obstacles

The Assad regime’s collapse has upended Syria’s political landscape, leaving the country in a precarious state of transition. The rebel forces that have toppled the government represent a diverse and at times fractious coalition, with concerning Islamist and al-Qaeda-linked elements among their ranks. This raises serious concerns about the potential for continued instability and violence in the aftermath of the regime’s downfall.

United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen said in a statement on Sunday:

Today marks a watershed moment in Syria’s history — a nation that has endured nearly 14 years of relentless suffering and unspeakable loss. The United Nations Special Envoy for Syria extends once again his deepest solidarity to all who have borne the weight of death, destruction, detention, and untold human rights violations. This dark chapter has left deep scars, but today we look forward with cautious hope to the opening of a new one — one of peace, reconciliation, dignity, and inclusion for all Syria.

The rebel forces themselves are a patchwork of groups with competing agendas and ideologies. The powerful Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faction, with its roots in al-Qaeda, has sought to rebrand itself as a more moderate anti-Assad force. But its past ties to extremism, as well as the tensions between Turkish-backed rebels and the Kurdish-led forces in the north, threaten to ignite new conflicts. The risk of infighting looms large. The spread of Islamist militancy is particularly concerning, given similar patterns following regime changes in Iraq and Libya.

The humanitarian challenge

Adding to the complexity is the fate of the refugee camps and prisons in northeastern Syria, where thousands of Islamic State fighters and their families are being held. The collapse of the Assad regime raises questions about who will be responsible for securing these facilities and preventing the potential resurgence of the terrorist group. The international community, which has largely outsourced this burden to the Kurdish-led forces, will need to play a more active role in addressing this pressing security challenge.

A framework for peace

UN Resolution 2254 outlines a comprehensive political process, including a ceasefire, inclusive governance, and free and fair elections under UN supervision. It emphasizes the vital role of Syrian-led negotiations which represent the diverse tapestry of its society. The importance of this resolution cannot be overstated; it embodies a collective vision for peace, forged through exhaustive dialogue among world powers and regional stakeholders.

As we navigate the complex geopolitics of the Middle East, one issue demands renewed international focus and commitment: the Syrian conflict. Amidst waves of political negotiations and myriad diplomatic efforts, UN Resolution 2254 remains a cornerstone for achieving a sustainable peace in Syria. Adopted unanimously by the United Nations Security Council on December 18, 2015, this resolution proposes a clear framework for ending the Syrian civil war. Yet, nearly a decade later, its implementation lags, hampered by escalating violence and global diplomatic inertia.

However, the path from adoption to fruition is thwarted by enduring challenges. Continued hostilities, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical postures have diverted the international community’s focus from the resolution’s goals. As of today, significant parts of Syria remain plagued by insecurity, with millions of Syrians still displaced and in dire need of humanitarian assistance.

The pivotal question thus remains: how do we rejuvenate Resolution 2254 and chart a viable path toward peace?

Charting a path forward

Renewed international commitment is paramount. Major powers must recognize the enduring impact of the Syrian conflict on regional stability and global security. Diplomatic engagement should be intensified with a unified agenda prioritizing Resolution 2254 without succumbing to geopolitical rivalries that often skew focus.

Addressing humanitarian concerns must be central to these efforts. Implementing ceasefires and ensuring uninterrupted access to humanitarian aid should be non-negotiable. Humanitarian considerations should transcend political divides, fostering an environment where dialogue can flourish.

Empowering Syrian civil society is crucial. The voices of Syrian civilians, especially those who have borne the brunt of the conflict, should shape the discourse around reconciliation and rebuilding. International stakeholders should facilitate platforms for these voices to be heard, ensuring that the peace processes are as inclusive and representative as envisioned by the resolution.

There should be accountability mechanisms to deter future violations and ensure that the commitments enshrined in 2254 are upheld. This includes pursuing justice for war crimes and leveraging sanctions strategically to promote compliance with peacekeeping measures.

The resurgence of focus on UN Resolution 2254 is not just a diplomatic necessity, but a moral imperative. The people of Syria deserve an end to the conflict that has ravaged their country and compromised their future for far too long. As global citizens and leaders, it is incumbent upon us all to renew our commitment to this peace process, ensuring Resolution 2254 is not just a document of ideals, but a roadmap towards real and lasting peace in Syria. Now we have a glimmer of hope that the roadmap for Syria’s political transition outlined in Resolution 2254 can now become a reality.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan have issued a joint statement echoing the need for the Resolution’s implementation. Ultimately, the path forward for Syria will require a carefully managed political transition that brings together the diverse array of rebel factions, as well as representatives from civil society and minority groups. Only through an inclusive process can a stable, representative government emerge from the ashes of the Assad regime. Failure to do so risks plunging the country back into the abyss of conflict and extremism. The international community must remain engaged and committed to supporting the Syrian people in this pivotal moment, lest the hard-won victory against the Assad dictatorship be squandered.

As international lawyer Toby Cadman has said: “For a traumatic year around the world and a traumatic decade for Syrians, this year is ending on a high note and one where a democratic future based on the [rule of law] can now be built.” Let’s hope this is where this will lead. The Syrian people must come first.

James Joseph is a PhD student at Queen’s University Belfast School of Law in Northern Ireland and JURIST’s managing editor for long-form content. 

*Originally published on Sunday, December 8, 2024. This version has been republished with updated information on the whereabouts of the Assad family, and other edits.