The recent defense agreement between North Korea and Russia, pledging mutual defense and assistance, signals a disturbing shift in the global geopolitical landscape. This pact, building on an increasingly visible camaraderie between these authoritarian regimes, raises the specter of a new axis of dictatorships. With China, Iran, and Belarus already exhibiting varying degrees of alignment with Moscow and Pyongyang, the emergence of a formidable coalition of autocracies appears alarmingly plausible. The implications for international peace and security are grave, echoing the prelude to global conflict seen in 1938. There is a gathering storm to be sure.
The strategic motivations behind this alliance are clear. For North Korea, the backing of a powerful neighbor bolsters its defiance against international sanctions and increases its leverage in regional power dynamics. Russia, mired in the quagmire of the Ukraine conflict and increasingly isolated from the West, seeks to consolidate its alliances to sustain its geopolitical ambitions. Both nations benefit from a united front against perceived Western hegemony, fostering a narrative of resistance and sovereignty against foreign intervention.
China’s role in this potential axis cannot be understated. As the world’s second-largest economy and an authoritarian regime with significant global influence, Beijing’s tacit support for North Korea and Russia enhances its strategic depth. While China may not overtly join a formal axis, its alignment in terms of economic partnerships, military cooperation, and diplomatic cover lends substantial weight to the coalition. The focus of China is maintaining a viable atmosphere for fostering business. It has the world’s largest middle class — a demographic that has grown accustomed to Western goods and services.
Iran and Belarus, too, contribute to this authoritarian constellation. Iran’s antagonism toward the West, particularly the United States, aligns with the interests of North Korea and Russia. Belarus, under Alexander Lukashenko’s regime, acts as a satellite state for Russian influence in Eastern Europe, further cementing the bloc’s geographic and strategic coherence. Iran’s focus is to destabilize the Middle East and continue its successful efforts I’m making Israel a pariah state.
This burgeoning alliance poses a multifaceted challenge to Western democracies. The cohesion of these autocratic regimes threatens to undermine the liberal international order established post-World War II, an order predicated on democratic values, the rule of law, human rights, and collective security. The consolidation of authoritarian power emboldens these regimes to act with impunity, whether through territorial expansion, cyber warfare, or the suppression of dissent.
Furthermore, the authoritarian bloc’s growing influence in international organizations like the United Nations undermines the efficacy of these institutions. They are very aware that the United Nations is starting to stumble, no longer the respected international institution that it once was. By leveraging their collective power, they can obstruct efforts to hold violators of international law accountable, dilute human rights norms, and promote an alternative vision of global governance that prioritizes state sovereignty over individual freedoms.
The response from Western democracies must be both robust and nuanced. Diplomatically, it is imperative to reinforce alliances such as NATO and strengthen ties with democratic partners in Asia, including South Korea and Japan. Economically, reducing dependency on authoritarian states through diversified supply chains and strategic trade partnerships will diminish the leverage these regimes hold. Militarily, continued investment in defense capabilities and cybersecurity is crucial to counter the multifaceted threats posed by this alliance. Holding Vladimir Putin accountable for his unwarranted aggression against Ukraine must be a cornerstone in restoring international peace and security.
However, an effective response also requires addressing the internal vulnerabilities that autocracies exploit. Polarization, economic inequality, and disinformation undermine the resilience of democratic societies. By fostering greater social cohesion, investing in education, and safeguarding the integrity of democratic institutions, Western nations can better withstand the ideological and strategic challenges posed by this authoritarian bloc.
The darkness of authoritarianism on the horizon augers poorly for the future of international peace and security. Yet, history has shown that the resilience and ingenuity of democratic societies can prevail against formidable adversaries. By remaining vigilant, united, and true to their core values, the democracies of the world can navigate this perilous era and ensure that the ideals of freedom and justice endure. There can be no other pathway forward, the lessons of the era of appeasement in the 1930’s are all too real and remain relevant.
David M. Crane is the Founding Chief Prosecutor for the UN Special Court for Sierra Leone. He is also the founder of the Global Accountability Network.
