Author’s Note: The publication of this piece coincidentally aligns with the initiation of a direct military response by the US and UK against the Houthis in Yemen overnight on 12 January 2023. Rather than update the piece, we have decided to publish it as-is. Everything below still stands – the Yemeni people deserve a considered, long-term approach to handling Red Sea security that prioritizes peace and development over short-term hawkishness.
The new year is off to a volatile start in the Red Sea, with the United States having engaged the Houthi rebels in an armed confrontation sinking multiple boats, and Iran having moved a warship into the area in response. Oil prices roiled, and shipping giant Maersk joined a growing list of companies that have paused all transit through the Red Sea until further notice. These developments followed weeks of increasing tensions, attacks on shipping vessels, and global discussion about how to address the threat to regional peace and global trade. The international community is now facing a grim set of options with every path forward entailing a large potential downside.
The Houthi Red Sea attacks risk provoking a heavy-handed military response from the United States. In addition to inflaming regional animosity toward the US, such a response could plunge Yemen into a new cycle of violence and overshadow the devastating humanitarian situation in the country. In that context, the US and international partners must ensure that their response prioritizes long-term vision rather than short-term problem-solving. Any course of action that is not sensitive to the longer-term peacebuilding and human rights needs of the Yemeni people would be a band-aid, not a lasting solution to the unstable conditions that have made the Houthis’ attacks possible.
The recent Houthi military escalation started on October 19th, 2023, in response to Israel’s incursion into Gaza following Hamas’s October 7th attack. In mid-December, the United States announced Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), a naval coalition to secure shipping routes, but the coalition is notably missing regional powers like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The coalition’s remit is broad and vague (“to secure safe passage for the commercial ships”), and US leadership is coming under increasing pressure to strike proactively at Houthi infrastructure and resources within Yemen. While that pressure is likely to only increase as the attacks continue, it is imperative that the international community carefully consider both the history and broader context of the Houthis’ rise to international prominence when weighing their options.
The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, originated in the 1990s as a religious and political movement, representing a faction of the Zaydi Shiite minority in Yemen. They have since evolved into a significant military and political force in the country. The Houthis have been involved in a protracted conflict with various actors, including the Saudi coalition-backed Yemeni government, since 2014 when they swept south through Yemen, gaining control over significant territory, including the capital of Sana’a. Their territorial acquisition has allowed the Houthis to establish institutional structures in the area, effectively splintering Yemen’s governance between the north and the Internationally Recognized Government based out of Aden in the south. The Houthis now control the longest section of Yemen’s 450-km long Red Sea Coast, including the critical port city of Hodeida.
Other players in the Yemeni conflict are plentiful, including the Southern Transition Council backed by the UAE, and multiple loosely affiliated armed groups who have thrived in the chaos and lack of control. The conflict has also provided significant cover for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has its original roots in Yemen, to increase its power and influence, particularly in the Western part of the country. The Houthis are known to have close ties to Iran, which provides them with financial and military support. This has significantly contributed to their ability to sustain a prolonged conflict with the Yemeni government and its allies.
The Yemeni people breathed a partial sigh of relief when a temporary ceasefire was negotiated in 2022. While the official ceasefire has since expired, it remains effectively intact with no return to widespread armed conflict. Although the political and conflict dynamics of Yemen’s civil war are beyond the scope of this article, it is critical to acknowledge that the Houthis are far from the only concerned party in Yemen, and the ceasefire established in 2022 is extremely fragile. Protecting that ceasefire and establishing a lasting peace deal are essential priorities for the Yemeni people and align with the United States’ regional interests.
While the Houthis’ official framing has been that their attacks would focus on Israeli vessels in response to attacks on Gaza, the actual scope of Houthi attacks has been indiscriminate. There are indications that the Houthis’ primary motivation is instead to strengthen their position and gain leverage in peace negotiations with Saudi Arabia that have been ongoing with the support of Omani diplomats since back-channel talks were initiated by the UN in 2022. A visit by high-profile Houthi leadership to Saudi Arabia in September 2023 was seen as a harbinger of positive progress toward a deal. However, the Houthis have also been increasingly engaged in efforts to bolster their negotiating position through frequent, small-scale attacks on adversaries in contested parts of central Yemen. The recent Red Sea attacks seem to follow the Houthis’ established pattern of using selective military engagement to strengthen their position against Saudi Arabia while avoiding a return to full-scale conflict.
In addition to threatening the recent tenuous progress in peace negotiations, the renewed military focus on Yemen could have devastating consequences for the country and its people. The focus on engagement with Iran and the potential for military attacks on the Houthis have overshadowed the devastating humanitarian situation of the Yemeni population, once deemed the world’s worst. Millions of Yemenis remain gravely food insecure, and widespread displacement, lack of essential services, weak rule of law, and pervasive human rights violations have become facts of everyday life since 2014.
While OPG has thus far proved to be a relatively restrained response to the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks, the attacks have understandably raised questions about the possibility of a more proactive and forceful intervention to limit Houthi capabilities. However, due to the fragile political situation and dire humanitarian situation, world leaders should consider military force as a last possible resort.
Any attempt to take the fight to the Houthis in Yemeni territory would have reverberating negative effects on both the country and the region. The direct involvement of international forces in Yemen, particularly the United States, would doom any further attempts to investigate, limit, or hold Saudi Arabia accountable for their coalition’s actions during the war. Additionally, direct attacks carry a clear and urgent political risk for the United States. Even if primarily carried out through unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles launched from distant land bases, these attacks risk causing civilian casualties that will further inflame regional animosity toward the US.
While the Houthis remain unpopular in Yemen, Yemeni civil society actors have expressed staunch support for Gaza and opposition to the US’s approach to relations with Israel. The optics of US bombers attacking Yemen would almost certainly both alienate Yemenis who see US actions as hypocritical and contrary to human rights and provide cover for Iran to advance its narrative of US meddling in the region. The attacks could boost popular support for the Houthis — who portray themselves as defenders of Yemen against the “American-Zionist aggression” — and potentially lead to a renewal of active conflict, which would be disastrous for Yemen’s security and economy.
The Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have raised significant concerns about the ongoing conflict in Yemen and its impact on global trade, and the international community is grappling with the need to address the Houthi threat while avoiding actions that could exacerbate the conflict and undermine peace efforts. Unfortunately, every path forward includes significant risk. The US may lose face and international support should OPG fail. The Red Sea route could close entirely, causing significant global economic damage, made even more disruptive by the recent disruptions around Panama’s shipping industry. Being overly aggressive could lead to the Houthis abandoning peace talks. The situation in the Red Sea and Yemen remains a complex and volatile issue that requires careful and strategic engagement to achieve a sustainable resolution, but what the Yemeni people need more than anything else is a realistic path toward peace and recovery — not a short-sighted overreliance on military might those risks plunging the country into a new round of war.
Emilia Pierce is a Rule of Law Program Officer at the DT Institute, a nonprofit peace and development organization based in Washington, DC.
