In the last few months of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s second term as president of Türkiye, he has faced multiple challenges, including the most severe earthquake in Türkiye in the last 80 years and an inflation rate of 85.51 percent (the highest in the last 25 years). Despite being in the highest executive position in Türkiye since 2013, he has been able to maintain his power by changing the electoral law at the suggestion of his party colleagues. This law gives him the possibility of ruling Türkiye until 2029.

Türkiye is on the verge of the most crucial elections in its history and is at risk of surrendering to authoritarianism and dictatorship under the 20-year rule of the Justice and Development Party. Since 2013, Erdogan has moved towards a one-man rule and has replaced Türkiye’s parliamentary system with a Russian-style presidential system. This has further weakened Türkiye’s fragile democracy.

Erdogan has a long history of eliminating his political rivals using the country’s judicial system. In the lead-up to the 2023 elections, he has preliminarily declared himself the winner and put one of his main rivals, Akram Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, on trial for “insulting the members of the Supreme Election Council of Türkiye.” The trial resulted in a sentence of imprisonment for Imamoglu, and Erdogan has supported the court’s decision.

Erdogan, like many dictators, does not tolerate criticism, and has taken various measures to restrict it, such as arresting journalists and filtering social networks. After the February 6 earthquake, the government arrested 18 people for “provoking” criticism of the government on social networks. Some filtering happened while several people were being saved by announcing their status and location on Twitter in the early hours of the earthquake. This is not a new phenomenon in Türkiye, as the country has a history of restricting social networks in times of national emergencies and security incidents.

But the recent disaster has become a double-edged sword for Erdogan and his party, as political rivals see it as an opportunity to increase their chances of gaining power. Harsh criticism of Erdogan’s handling of the earthquake crisis has indicated that his political rivals are intent on taking advantage of this. This has led to Erdogan’s fiery reaction, as he is aware of the impact the 1999 earthquake in Izmir, which claimed 17,000 lives, had on the rise of his own party. If he does not win the approval of the people in the next three months, his political life may come to an end.

Additionally, some regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, which have long relied on “money diplomacy,” are likely to take advantage of this situation. Erdogan is in a position where he views any help in overcoming the crisis as an opportunity to increase his chances of winning. As a result, it is possible that he will make concessions to these countries, which he may not have accepted under normal circumstances.

Sharareh Abdolhoseinzadeh is a PhD in Political Sociology and a political researcher in Tehran, Iran.

Suggested citation: Sharareh Abdolhoseinzadeh, Erdogan Challenged: Earthquake, Crisis and Power in Türkiye , JURIST – Professional Commentary, February 10, 2023, https://www.jurist.org/commentary/2023/02/Sharareh-Abdolhoseinzadeh-Iran-internet-censorship/.