Agnieszka Bienczyk-Missala [Lecturer, Institute of International Relations, University of Warsaw]: "On 10 April 2010 one of the most tragic events in Polish post-war history happened. Polish president Lech Kaczyński died in a plane crash on his way to Smolensk in Russia for a Katyn commemoration ceremony. 70 years ago at this place the Soviet Union massacred the Polish elite. The president was accompanied by his wife and distinguished guests. Nobody survived. The 96 victims included top Polish politicians and servicemen such as the deputy foreign minister, deputy national defense minister, six of the most important military commanders, the head of the Polish National Bank, dozens of members of parliament and heads of national institutions.

Seven days of mourning was announced in Poland and Bronisław Komorowski, the chief of the lower house of parliament, became the acting president. He was also nominated as a candidate for the forthcoming presidential elections by the ruling party Civic Platform.

The tragic plane crash did not influence investors and the Polish Stock-Exchange. Rather, it had political consequences. There was a need to nominate the successors of late officials and organize an early presidential election. However, two candidates died in the plane crash: President Kaczyński supported by the main opposition party, Law and Justice, and Jerzy Szmajdziński, the left party official candidate. It's not certain at this time which politicians will get nominations from these parties.

The favorite to win the election is Bronisław Komorowski, the candidate of ruling Civic Platform, which enjoys the most public support. But it's not obvious how the catastrophe will influence Poles' political preferences. Law and Justice lost its top leaders and some conservative groups and commentators who sympathize with Law and Justice claim that it would be a disadvantage if all government and presidential seats would be in the hands of Civic Platform. It's highly probable, that after the mourning period, the opposition will start asking questions concerning the responsibility of Civic Platform for the catastrophe. The situation can still turn against the ruling party and Bronisław Komorowski.

Komorowski will try to use his unexpected presidential post to present himself from the best side. He has given assurances that he would announce the election date after consultations with all political parties and it should be the best possible day for opposition parties that were strongly touched by the catastrophe. One of his first decisions was the nomination of general Stanisław Koziej as a new chief of National Security Office. General Koziej is a very experienced professional, but according to Law and Justice sympathizers the decision was too fast and provides proof of Civic Platform's expansive aspirations. Polish society's reaction to the loss of the President was extremely strong. The question of whether that compassion and pain will turn into political support for the Law and Justice candidate seems to be crucial for the political future in Poland.

The tragedy, however, can positively influence Polish-Russian relations, which were extremely difficult after the collapse of communism in Poland in 1989. The Katyń massacre divided both countries. Russian authorities did not agree to declassify all documents concerning the mass murder and open archives for Polish historians. Genuine dialog was not possible, and even today around 30% of Russians still believe that the massacre was perpetrated by Nazis, as the official Soviet propaganda claimed.

The climate in Polish-Russian relations was improved two years ago, after Civic Platform won the Polish election. Political contacts between authorities started to be more intensive. The Polish-Russian Group for Difficult Affairs was created to work for bilateral dialogue and some positive signs appeared also in the context of the Katyń issue. Three days before the catastrophe, Katyn was visited by the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, who was invited by Wladimir Putin for common celebrations. It happened for the first time in history and was appreciated by Poland.

It is a bitter irony that at the same place Poland again has lost its elite. Russian authorities demonstrated great understanding and helped to organize evacuation and identification of victims. The Russian president and prime minister addressed Poles, offering their condolences. The new climate between authorities and the societies of both countries became a matter of fact and this is a good basis for better relations in the future. On the other hand, declared Polish and Russian interests have been different for years – for example in the spheres of NATO and EU enlargement, the Nord Stream pipe, and democratization in post-soviet areas. These interests cannot simply be changed from day to day."