Piotr Maciej Kaczyński [Research Fellow, Centre for European Policy Studies]: "On the tragic morning of the Black Saturday, 10 April 2010, the President of Poland Lech Kaczyński travelling with his wife Maria and 94 other persons were killed in a plane crash near Smolensk, Russia. They were going to Katyń, a place where 70 years earlier the Soviet secret police NKVD slaughtered over 20,000 Polish intellectuals. During the next 70 years the rulers of Moscow first denied the crime, and after the end of communism they were ambivalent about the Soviet responsibility for it. Ever since Poland regained its sovereignty in 1989, it has been vital for the Polish political class to solve the mysteries of the Katyń massacre and commemorate the victims every year. The remembrance of the truth about the Katyń murders has been particularly important for President Kaczyński. It will be part of his legacy now that the whole world, once and for all, knows about the Katyń massacre and who are responsible for it.

Poland is a stable democratic country. A massive tragedy like the one of 10 April does not undermine the stability of the state or the chain of command. Within hours of the tragedy, the Speaker of the Sejm (the Parliament) Bronisław Komorowski became the acting head of state. He has fourteen days to call for early presidential elections, which have to take place within the next 60 days. Deputy Chiefs of the National Central Bank, the Institute of National Remembrance and the Ombudsman Office took up their respective acting roles. A new head of the National Security Bureau has been already appointed on Monday as well as a new head of the President's Chancellery. New members of the Sejm will be sworn in according to the procedure; the three new Senators will be elected in the by-election, possibly together with the earlier presidential elections.

As in a parliamentary democracy, the prerogatives of the President are limited by the Constitution. It is the government with its Prime Minister who are the primary actors with executive powers. The cabinet lost three deputy ministers: of defense, of foreign affairs and of culture. None of the sitting government ministers were on the plane. It will now be the responsibility — in the absence of the President — of the de facto country leader Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister, to ensure the continuity of governance and stability of the system.

All political families lost members. The Law and Justice Party (PiS, before the accident with +/- 25% public support) lost leadership of their parliamentary club, as five leading MPs and two senators have passed away, including former ministers Gęsicka, Gosiewski, Wassermann. The late President together with his brother established the party back in 2001. His passing may have significant consequences for the future of the party.

The governing Civic Platform (PO, +/- 50% public support) also lost important figures (3 MPs and Deputy Speaker of the Senate Bochenek). The party leaders were not on the plane; Prime Minister Donald Tusk and three of his ministers were present at another Katyń ceremony last Wednesday together with the Russian Prime Minister Putin.

There were also three MPs of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD, +/- 10% public support) who lost their lives in the tragedy, including the party's candidate for Poland's presidency, Jerzy Szmajdziński. The left wing party has been especially hurt by the accident, as there are now very few middle-aged leaders left. Szmajdziński and another victim, Jolanta Szymanek-Deresz, were supposed to lead the process of regaining public support for the party following the fall elections, which once enjoyed over 40% support in the 2001 elections.

The Polish People's Party (PSL, +/- 6% public support) also lost 3 MPs. The last parliamentarian was no other then Maciej Płażyński, who was an independent MP, who was one of the co-founders of the PO back in 2001 and Speaker of the Sejm from 1997-2001.

The unprecedented tragedy of 10 April does not stop time, and once the state of shock is over, normal politics will return. For the moment it is too early for a deep and comprehensive analysis of the political consequences and impact on the political stability of the system. A lot will depend on how actors and individuals behave in the aftermath of the tragedy. Will it cement the domination of the ruling PO? What will be the impact on the PiS and its orphaned leader, Jarosław Kaczyński? Will the party cease to exist or, quite the opposite, will its support flourish out of sympathy for the deceased President? What will happen with the SLD, who also lost almost all remaining middle-aged leaders on Saturday? Will another formation dominate the left flank? Who will be Poland's next President and what will the campaign look like? Will there be a campaign at all? Would PiS and SLD put forward candidates? Will the candidates have enough time to collect 100,000 signatures to run? All those relevant questions are going to be answered when the political life of the country returns to reality. But for the moment, the country is united in mourning and grief."