Danilo Reyes [Asian Human Rights Commission]: "There have been dozens of attempted coups in the modern history of the Philippines, but only one has succeeded: the February 1986 overthrow of Ferdinand Marcos. His regime and its constitutional foundations were toppled because even though the country's institutions were structurally intact, they were not credible to the vast numbers of people who came out onto the streets to demand change.

By contrast the January 2001 ouster of Joseph Estrada, although depending upon popular support, did not challenge the constitutional order. The then-vice president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, was appointed in Estrada's stead in accordance with the 1987 law on succession. Although Estrada's camp up to now insists that he did not abandon or resign from his post, the Supreme Court overruled his claim to the presidency. Arroyo went on to win the 2004 elections and has a constitutional right to remain president, barring unforeseen eventualities, until 2010.

Therefore, had the soldiers, politicians and others involved in the failed 'Peninsula Putsch' of this November 29 had any chance of success, they would have thrown up enormous questions about constitutionality and the presidency of the Philippines.

The attempt to seize government from a luxury hotel in downtown Manila had none of the elements of the removal of the presidents either in 1986 or 2001. There was no enormous public outcry or support for their actions. Nor were those who launched the attempt apparently interested in the use of legitimate constitutional means to attempt to have the president replaced. Rather, the idea of transitional government on which they seem to have placed their bets was for the chief justice to serve as an interim president. There is no provision in the 1987 Constitution for this apparently ill-considered and misguided approach to a change in power for the Philippines.

Without either public support or adherence to constitutional norms, the November 29 coup attempt was doomed to failure. Future nascent coup leaders should tread more carefully, and learn from history. To succeed, either the law or the people must be on their side."